Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
